The year has started well for Ferrari. With 2020 being a complete write off, the new season has shown the team on an upwards trajectory. Ferrari are currently 4th in the Constructors’ Championships, in close touch with McLaren in third.
Charles Leclerc has started to show his qualifying brilliance and Carlos Sainz has settled into his new team well, despite the lack of pre-season testing.
The perceived wisdom is that whilst Red Bull and Mercedes are well out in front, Ferrari will fight it out with McLaren for third.
Alpine (formerly Renault) have had moments of promise and at Aston Martin (formerly Racing Point), Sebastian Vettel is beginning to show a welcome return to form but so far in the Constructors’ Championship they are well behind.
This season, however, is unlike any other. With this in mind, I think that Ferrari should be thinking of aiming for at least third in the Constructors’ Championship. The Drivers’ Championship is almost certainly between Hamilton and Verstappen, but there are reasons to believe that the Constructors’ Championship is not entirely sewn up at this point. Andreas Seidl at McLaren has stated he believes the Constructors’ Championship is “Live” and so should Ferrari. This may seem wildly optimistic at this stage but it isn’t.
Firstly, both Mercedes and Red Bull have problematic second drivers.
Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes.
Valtteri Bottas is almost certainly in his last season for Mercedes. He has dutifully played the part of second driver throughout his tenure. If he has aspirations to continue his career in 2022 then he needs to put himself first this season. During First Practice 1 at Spain, there was a brief glimpse of the inside of Valtteri’s pit box and it looked terrible. His crew looked disengaged and their body language was defensive. This is race 4 of the season and they looked like they were already going through the motions. This is not a motivated team. Perhaps Valtteri finally showing some spine and making Hamilton overtake him, rather than following team orders in the race will improve this situation. It’s clear however, that Bottas is not being the good old reliable team player this year. He has no reason to. He has everything to lose by doing that. Toto Wolff has many qualities but he genuinely seems to have issues handling competing drivers in his team. If Valtteri is a wing man no more, it will stretch Wolff to the limit handling this situation and his Constructors’ championship may suffer.
Over at Red Bull, having burned through all of their Red Bull junior drivers, Sergio Perez has taken over as their second driver. Perez has never been a Red Bull junior and has different backers, so the ability of the infamous Dr Marko to manage him may be limited. He is also reported to be on a 1 year contract. Perez was over and out in Formula One until his win at the end of the 2020 season. His one year reprieve at Red Bull is his best ever chance. He has nothing to gain from being Verstappen’s wing man. Perez is going to find out if he has what it takes to run at the front in a top F1 team. If he does, he has no reason at this point to help Verstappen; if he doesn’t he can’t help Verstappen. This may again compromise the Constructors’ Championship for Red Bull.
Another problem looming for both Mercedes and Red Bull is the budget cap. This budget cap is a mistake and may yet be the catalyst for the end of Formula One in its current form with its current management. Ferrari, by all reports, have implemented and dealt with the budget cap restrictions during 2020. New projects have been started and staff members redeployed. Mercedes and Red Bull both report having to make staff redundant over the winter break.
As is typical of the management of Formula One, they took a blunt instrument to a problem that needed microsurgery. The issue with the budget cap and the way it’s been implemented is that it destabilises the teams. Whilst management can carefully decide who they are going to let go from their teams, they cannot influence who decides not to stay. In the Mercedes and Red Bull design offices there will be staff who will be considering their futures. With a budget cap restricting the size of their design teams, promotion may no longer be on the cards. The reorganisation may have placed them under the direction of managers they do not care for. It is startling to hear of so many Mercedes staff apparently moving to the new Red Bull engine facility. Whilst it would be natural for Red Bull to want to attract Mercedes staff, the staff at Mercedes appear to have accepted Red Bull’s offers with almost indecent haste. It’s interesting. Why would you leave a top team? What’s happening at Mercedes? Jean Todt, President of the FiA, still believes that engineers should feel privileged to work in Formula One. He must be living in the last century. We now live in a world where brilliant, innovative engineers are much sought after and an engineer with Formula One experience will likely be able to secure very nice employment elsewhere, perhaps in an industry that doesn’t arbitrarily decide to sack its engineers. With mortgages to pay, families to support and the long hours and demands of Formula One, perhaps their prized engineers will start to look to further their careers elsewhere. Both Red Bull and Mercedes could start to find they have problems retaining their staff. This could well affect the ability of both the top teams to perform as the season goes on.
The other unique thing about the 2021 season is that it is the longest season Formula One has ever had. It is scheduled to run to December. It is inconceivable that with the schedule they are on and with the added stress and worry of the ongoing Covid 19 pandemic, that the teams will be able to maintain the intensity and competitiveness throughout the season. Whilst this is true with all teams, the stress and intensity is felt most at the front of the grid. If Ferrari or McLaren can continue to keep putting in the solid points finishes and take the opportunities for podiums and wins when they will surely arrive, then the opportunity for doing better than third in the Constructors’ Championship exists.
Ferrari and McLaren are both teams on an upward trajectory. Both have terrific driver line ups. Both are looking to resume their seat at the top of the Formula One table. They could push each other on to higher performance and better results this season. Whilst the Drivers’ World Championship looks destined for either Hamilton or Verstappen, the Constructors’ is a lot more open. Certainly, this scenario relies on the other teams making mistakes but Red Bull already have made big mistakes this year. Ferrari should be going for it.
By Clare Topic
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